Next to hotels, restaurants and culture, which are still suffering from the effects of social distancing, the export sector is probably the most exposed to the crisis, suffering from the domestic lockdown measures as much as from lockdowns across the world and supply chain disruptions. Moreover, the export sector is also subject to structural changes in the global economy, be it more protectionism, a transition away from traditional manufacturing toward services, high tech or electric vehicles.

The different degrees of lockdowns as well as the uneven recovery across eurozone countries are also reflected in German export data, with the share of exports to France, Italy, Spain and the UK having dropped significantly in the second quarter. Just as an illustration: Germany exported more to the Netherlands than to France, and more to China than to the US.