The government has little idea of the true scale of the jobs crisis caused by coronavirus in the UK because of wildly conflicting sets of official unemployment figures, according to a report.

It means ministers are flying blind as unemployment is expected to surge past four million over the coming months, because they do not have a reliable and accurate measure of the number of people out of work.

According to the Resolution Foundation, recent jobs data showed that by the official measure unemployment had risen by just 34,000 in April, despite huge economic upheaval caused by Covid-19 and the lockdown.

By another measure – the claimant count – unemployment had jumped by more than 1 million.

All we really know is that both figures are “completely wrong”, said Mike Brewer, chief economist at the think tank.

“Britain is in the midst of an unprecedented economic shock that is profoundly affecting millions of people’s jobs. Unemployment is forecast to hit four million for the first time ever. And yet our official data is failing to show the true extent of this jobs crisis.“

The unemployment rate is so misleading because it does not include people who are not actively looking for work, the Resolution Foundation said. This is a position many more people have found themselves in during the pandemic as vacancies have dried up and hiring stalled.

It therefore underestimates unemployment by a wide margin.

By contrast, the claimant count overstates the problem because it includes people who have some work but whose earnings are low enough that they can claim universal credit.

The report estimates that less than half (700,000) of the 1.6 million increase in the claimant count between March and May is related to people who are newly out-of-work and not on furlough.

The Resolution Foundation argues that a much more accurate picture is given by the change in hours worked, which plunged 23 per cent in April as millions of people went onto the job retention scheme.

None of the figures can give a reliable estimate of how many people will still be employed when the scheme begins to taper off in two weeks’ time.

Mr Brewer added: “Accurate labour market data matters for both public understanding of the crisis we face, and for how government responds to it. It is vital that our national statisticians provide a more accurate picture of what’s happening to people’s jobs – however grim the reality may be.”